EUR/JPY

USD/JPY remains bullish overall, but the 160 level is still a major barrier, with pullbacks likely to find support near 158 and 156 before another breakout attempt.

EUR/USD remains under pressure below the 200-day EMA, with rallies likely to be faded unless the pair can reclaim 1.1650 and shift the near-term outlook.

USD/CAD remains near the top of its range, with 1.3750 as the key breakout level and 1.39 the next upside target if dollar strength continues.

Bitcoin fell back on Thursday, but a recovery above $72,000 would strengthen the basing setup and put $82,000 back into focus.

Silver was hit hard by rising US yields, with $70 acting as the key level that must hold to prevent a deeper slide toward the 200-day EMA.

Natural gas spiked on Qatar supply fears, but with $3 still acting as support and $3.50 as likely resistance, traders may look to fade exhaustion near the highs.

Gold was hit hard on Thursday as rising US yields pressured prices, with $4,600 now the key level to watch for either a rebound or deeper breakdown.

WTI crude oil remains headline-driven and rangebound below $100, with $102 needed for a breakout higher while $92 and $85 stand out as major support levels.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week. Large repricings changed the Market picture after the FOMC and major Central bank week. Get ready for next week’s action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets. Week in review – A new Market order After all these talks […]

Canadian Highlights The outlook is now clouded by the Iran conflict, overshadowing signs of easing inflation. Retail sales showed strong momentum early in the year, but higher energy prices are set to erode real spending in the coming months. Core inflation was near target with excess capacity in the economy, giving the BoC some buffer […]

After hawkish Fed, dollar traders turn to preliminary PMI data. Pound set for a busy week amid inflation, PMI and retail sales numbers. Japan’s CPI to determine how likely an April BoJ hike is. Australia’s CPI could solidify the case for a third consecutive RBA hike. After the central bank spree, agenda becomes lighter. Following […]

It has been another highly volatile week, with financial markets moving on headlines from the war in Iran and sharp swings in energy prices. Attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East have escalated the conflict and prolonged the negative supply shock facing the global economy. As a result, the two-year European swap rate has […]

Economic data releases in Canada are quiet in the week ahead with the most notable being January’s Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) on Thursday, when we expect further stabilization in job vacancies following improvements in timelier job openings data from Indeed Hiring Lab. February’s labour market report was weak with the unemployment rate […]

Retail sales rose 1.1% month-on-month (m/m) in January, coming in below Statistics Canada’s advance estimate of 1.5%. In real terms, sales volumes increased 1.0% m/m, suggesting the gain was largely driven by higher activity rather than prices. Auto sales rebounded, rising 2.0% m/m, driven by new car dealers (+2.5% m/m), marking the first increase in […]

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.84; (P) 158.38; (R1) 159.25; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Correction from 159.88 is expected to extend lower to 38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 159.88 at 156.96. For now, near term outlook will be neutral with risk on the downside as long as 159.88 resistance holds, in case of recovery. In […]

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7840; (P) 0.7899; (R1) 0.7942; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and some more consolidations would be seen below 0.7957. Further rally is in favor as long as 0.7746 support holds. Rise from 0.7603 is seen as correcting the whole down trend from 0.9200. Above 0.7957 will target 38.2% retracement of […]

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3295; (P) 1.3382; (R1) 1.3517; More… Intraday bias in GBPUSD remains neutral for the moment. With 1.3482 resistance intact, further decline remains in favor. On the downside, below 1.3216 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. However, decisive break of 1.3482 will argue that the fall from 1.3867 has […]

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1488; (P) 1.1518; (R1) 1.1570; More…. EUR/USD is still bounded in established range trading and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.1666 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive […]

ECB rate hike expectations are gaining traction in markets, with growing speculation that tightening could begin as early as April. Major institutions including Barclays and J.P. Morgan are now forecasting an initial move next month, followed by additional hikes in June and July, reflecting a rapid shift in policy expectations amid rising inflation risks. Other […]

Canada’s retail sales rose 1.1% mom to CAD 70.7B in January, falling short of expectations for a stronger 1.4% increase. The gain was nevertheless broad-based, with six of nine subsectors posting growth, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers. Core retail sales, which strip out volatile components such as gasoline and autos, rose a solid […]

Eurozone trade data for January painted a weak start to the year, with both exports and imports contracting sharply. Exports fell -7.6% yoy to EUR 215.2B, while imports dropped -7.3% yoy to EUR 217.2B, leaving a EUR -1.9B deficit. Intra-Eurozone trade also softened, declining -3.3% yoy to EUR 213.1B, pointing to subdued demand both within […]

Key takeaways Relative policy dynamics driving FX moves: USD/JPY weakness highlights that USD strength is not absolute, hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and Bank of England offset Fed expectations, pushing the US dollar lower. Hawkish tilt from BoJ supports yen strength: Despite holding rates, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s comments on wages and […]

Yesterday, the Bank of England’s decision had a significant impact on the pound, which strengthened against other currencies. Although the Official Bank Rate remained unchanged at 3.75%, the market was surprised by the “hawkish” signals, which sharply contrasted with the dovish statements made at the February meeting. According to media reports: → None of the […]

Gold attracts moderate gains after slump to 4,500. Oversold conditions present, but rebound not yet convincing. Gold faced a “double trouble” scenario this week as the Middle East crisis coincided with a hawkish Fed, causing a 10% slump – the worst since February 2020. The price plummeted to an almost seven-week low of 4,502, approaching […]

USD/CAD rises above downtrend line, key SMAs. But strong resistance and bearish SMA crossover limit upside. Momentum signals stay soft despite holding in bullish territory. USD/CAD is retesting the ceiling of a multi‑week consolidation that has remained intact since late January, near 1.3730, as the commodity‑linked Canadian dollar finds support from elevated oil prices and […]

GBP/USD rose during the previous session and is now correcting to 1.3403. The pound responded positively to the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with market attention focused on the regulator’s guidance on how the Iran conflict might influence future policy. The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously for a pause (9-0), a […]

As the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows, the index dropped below the 6,570 level yesterday for the first time in 2026. As a result, the equity market may be on track to post a fourth consecutive weekly decline, closing below its 200-day moving average. Why Are Equities Falling? Bearish sentiment […]

March 20 Reuters CBS News will lay off about 6 of its workforce, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters, in the latest move under new EditorinChief Bari Weiss to revamp the network and boost its ratings to catch up with rivals ABC and NBC. It's no secret that the news business is changing radically, and that we need to change along with it, according to a memo sent on Friday to employees by Weiss and CBS News President Tom Cibrowski that was seen by Reuters. CBS News Radio, which has been around for nearly a century, will shut down on May 22, with all positions within the unit eliminated, according to a separate internal note. It was not immediately clear how many employees were part of the unit or which other programs would be affected by the layoffs. Highprofile journalists such as 60 Minutes correspondent Anderson Cooper have parted ways with CBS News since Weiss took over as the network's new editorinchief in October, following Paramount Skydance's purchase of her outlet The Free Press. Weiss is looking to revamp the newsroom and bring on a streaming mentality to the network. She unveiled her strategy in January to add 19 new contributors while focusing on restructuring operations and starting news coverage on digital platforms. Employees who are affected by the latest layoffs are expected to be notified by the end of the day, the memo said. New audiences are burgeoning in new places, and we are pressing forward with ambitious plans to grow and...

No certainty of deal, companies issue separate statements Unilever says it received an inbound offer for the business Analysts say transactions could involve spinoff and partial sale Companies have not disclosed financial details McCormick shares fall, Unilever shares pare some intraweek losses LONDON, March 20 Reuters Unilever is in talks to sell its foods business to smaller rival McCormick Company, potentially marking a major shift for the British consumer goods company as it focuses on highergrowth beauty, household and personal care businesses. Londonlisted Unilever, owner of Hellmann's mayonnaise and Knorr stock cubes, said on Friday spice maker McCormick had made an offer concerning its foods business. Both companies said discussions were ongoing and that there was no certainty a deal would be agreed, providing no financial details. The talks are an acceleration of Unilever CEO Fernando Fernandez's plan to shift Unilever towards fastergrowing nonfood categories after spinning off its ice cream business last year. SIMPLICITY TRUMPS SCALE Shares in Cholula hot sauce owner McCormick fell as much as 2.6 in early trade to their lowest since June 2018. Unilever's shares were up 1 on the day, after losing more than 6 over two sessions as media speculation about the fate of the food assets spread. We think it is sensible that Unilever are looking at options for their food business, said Richard Saldanha, global equity portfolio manager at Aviva, a...

March 20 Reuters FedEx shares surged about 7 in morning trading on Friday, after the packagedelivery giant raised its fullyear profit forecast and signaled steady shipping demand despite geopolitical tensions and surging fuel costs. While the U.S.Israeli war on Iran has increased air freight rates and forced rerouting of flights, FedEx, considered a bellwether for global trade, said demand in the first two weeks of March tracked expectations for a continuation of thirdquarter trends. Rising oil prices could still feed through to shipping costs in the coming weeks. FedEx has said its fuelsurcharge mechanisms continue to absorb most of the impact. Rising oil prices can actually help FDX as it relates to fuel surcharges, Evercore ISI analyst Jonathan Chappell said. However, higher shipping costs could prompt customers to trade down from premium Express services to more economical delivery options. FedEx, which operates the world's largest cargo air fleet by aircraft count, has suspended most of its Middle East operations and is rerouting shipments. However, it has benefited from continued growth on AsiaEurope routes, where it has redeployed capacity from AsiaU.S. lanes. The Memphisbased company on Thursday reported thirdquarter results that topped Wall Street estimates, driven by strength in its highermargin, timesensitive Express segment, where increased volume and stronger pricing helped deliver the most profitable peak season in its history. B2B activity has...

BEIJING, March 20 Reuters Electric vehicle maker Xpeng said on Friday it aims to double overseas sales this year to raise the contribution from international markets to 20 of revenue, as it prepares to launch its G6 and G9 models in Mexico on March 25. The Mexico launch marks the company's latest step in an overseas expansion drive as Chinese EV makers look abroad for growth amid intense competition and slowing demand at home. Xpeng reported its firstever quarterly profit in the fourth quarter, beating estimates and joining Nio, Li Auto and Leapmotor among China's socalled new forces of automakers that achieved the breakeven milestone. The brand will officially launch in Mexico at the end of March, introducing the G6 and G9 to deepen its presence in Latin America, founder and CEO He Xiaopeng said during its postearnings call, according to the company. XPeng has increasingly focused on overseas markets as a key growth driver, expanding in Europe and other markets outside China. The company has previously said it aims for overseas sales to contribute 70 of total profit by 2030. Reporting by Qiaoyi Li, Zhang Yan and Jumin Park; Editing by Joe Bavier and Jane Merriman

UBS aims to expand in the US and improve profitability Bank faces challenges revamping its business Faced with tougher rules at home, Swiss bank seeks growth abroad ZURICH, March 20 Reuters UBS has secured a national banking licence in the United States, the Swiss lender said on Friday, underlining its desire to ramp up wealth management in the world's biggest economy. Rob Karofsky, President UBS Americas, said in a memo posted on social media that the U.S. licence reinforced the bank's confidence in its U.S. business and its ambition to strengthen UBS's position as a global wealth manager. A spokesperson for the bank confirmed the authenticity of the memo. UBS said in October last year it had applied for approval to convert its U.S. bank, UBS Bank USA, to a nationally chartered bank, which will allow it to match the full range of services offered by U.S. lenders, including checking accounts, savings accounts and mortgages. UBS sees the U.S., where more than 1,000 people millionaires every day in 2024, as the most important growth market in its core wealth management business. But UBS is less profitable than leading U.S. banks, such as Morgan Stanley. The Swiss lender is also facing obstacles in revamping the business after losing billions of dollars in client assets and nearly 200 financial advisers, according to analysts and industry sources, Reuters reported this week. The need to fix the U.S. business has taken on extra urgency since UBS bought Credit...

Frontier confident in handling volatile fuel prices, raises fares New planes are costly to park if demand drops, says Deutsche Bank analyst Frontier's fleet is 85 fuelefficient Airbus A320neo aircraft Spirit to return or sell newer jets due to high costs, analyst says NEW YORK, March 20 Reuters Ultralowcost carriers have some of the newest, most fuelefficient planes in the industry, but if travel demand in the United States falters as a result of growing macroeconomic uncertainty, paying for the new planes could become a barrier to profit. U.S. carriers on Tuesday said that they were seeing strongerthanexpected spring travel demand. Still, as the U.S.Israeli war on Iran has pushed U.S. jet fuel prices above 200 per barrel, legacy carriers are starting to trim capacity like United Airlines or could park aircraft to save on costs, a luxury that Frontier Airlines may not have. Frontier said it saw an improvement in demand in the first quarter as it filled gaps left by Spirit's contraction on the West Coast. The company's adjusted revenue per available seat mile, a proxy for pricing power, was trending higher before the fuel spike, a company spokesperson said. Greater fuel efficiency is a clear advantage as airlines' largest expense after labor is jet fuel. On Thursday, jet fuel surpassed 200 per barrel, according to Kloza Advisors principal analyst Tom Kloza, compared to about 105 before the conflict began. Frontier started 2026 committed to raising its...

March 20 Reuters Super Micro shares sank 27 on Friday after U.S. prosecutors charged three people linked with the company, including its cofounder, with helping smuggle billions of dollars worth of AI technology to China. The drop in early morning trading would erase nearly 5 billion from Super Micro's 18.49 billion market value if the losses hold. U.S. prosecutors did not name Super Micro a major AI server builder using Nvidia's chips in the complaint. The company confirmed it was not named as a defendant in the case, and said it had cooperated with investigators. The U.S. Justice Department charged cofounder YihShyan Liaw, sales manager RueiTsang Chang, and contractor TingWei Sun with running a scheme to route U.S.made servers through Taiwan to Southeast Asia. There, the products were repackaged into unmarked boxes and smuggled into China. They allegedly moved at least 2.5 billion in U.S. AI technology, including over half a billion dollars worth shipped between April and midMay 2025, the department said. Super Micro has placed the employees on leave and ended its relationship with the contractor. Bernstein analysts said the charges raise serious credibility issues that could impact business. We wonder if Nvidia might feel the need to further distance themselves from SMCI. If so, this could impact SMCI's important supply of GPUs, which in turn could have devastating impact on SMCI, the analysts said. The U.S. imposed chip export controls in 2022 to...

FTSE 100 down 0.1, FTSE 250 up 0.2 Both indexes on track to third straight weekly decline BoE hints at potential rate hikes amid inflation concerns Unilever in talks to sell foods business to McCormick March 20 Reuters London's FTSE100 marginally fell on Friday, set for a third consecutive weekly decline, as the escalating Middle East war and surging oil prices deepened inflation fears and cemented expectations for the Bank of England to hike interest rates. The bluechip FTSE 100 fell 0.1 by 1039 GMT, while the midcap FTSE 250 was up 0.2. Both indexes swung between losses and gains through the session, reflecting the choppy and uncertain mood across markets. Oil prices nudged higher on Friday despite leading European nations, Japan and Canada offering to join efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. outlining moves to boost supply. UK's energy stocks slipped 0.9, but was still around recordhigh levels. Heavyweight pharma stocks fell 0.3. The BoE held rates at 3.75 at Thursday's policy meeting. Its warning that inflation posed a bigger risk than slowing growth pushed traders to price in a roughly 60 chance of a 25basispoint hike by April and potentially up to three quarterpoint increases by yearend. Fresh fiscal concerns rose after Britain borrowed far more than expected in February, partly due to volatile debtinterest payments, just as the Iran conflict drove up funding costs and fuelled calls for higher public...

ECB may consider rate hikes amid rising inflation Unilever in talks to sell foods business to McCormick STOXX 600 nears threemonth lows, down over 7 since February March 20 Reuters Europe's STOXX 600 gave up opening gains to trade flat on Friday, and was set for a third consecutive weekly loss, as an expanding Middle East conflict and a surge in oil prices reinforced inflation fears. The panEuropean STOXX 600 was flat at 583.70 by 1000 GMT, poised to log a 2 weekly decline and its longest losing streak since April. The heavyweight financial sector provided the biggest boost, up 0.5, while the energy sector declined 1.1 the biggest drag on the index, as crude prices pulled back. The benchmark was hovering near threemonth lows and has lost more than 7 since its late February record high, hit a day before the Iran war started. Israel launched fresh attacks on Iran a day after President Donald Trump told the country not to repeat its strikes on Iranian natural gas infrastructure. Europe's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil has left it exposed to rising crude prices as the Straight of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global oil supplies, remains largely cut off. Attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf have pushed oil prices higher and threatened a rise in inflation above the ECB's 2 target rate. A potential conflict lasting and higher interest rates, the big question mark is, what it could affect, said Gilles Guibout, head of European equity, AXA IM...

Sterling lower, still set for weekly rise Markets price at least three BoE hikes Oil prices provide direction LONDON, March 20 Reuters The British pound fell on Friday, as oil prices resumed their upward trend, but stayed on course for a weekly rise after the Bank of England raised expectations of rate hikes this year. Sterling was last down 0.4 versus the dollar at 1.3376, reversing some of the prior day's 1.3 rise. For the week, the currency is up 1.2. The BoE on Thursday voted unanimously to keep borrowing costs on hold, and said it was ready to act to see off risks emanating from the war in the Middle East. Money market traders have moved to aggressively price rate hikes, with investors expecting 80 basis points of tightening this year, implying at least three quarterpoint rate hikes. MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT TRANSFORMS VIEWS Prior to the conflict, investors had expected the BoE to lower borrowing costs as early as Thursday's meeting. Markets have also dismissed the prospect of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, but in contrast to the BoE, do not expect the U.S. central bank to raise rates. The repricing has been quite significant and I think it's fair for them the BoE to signal determination to bring inflation back to target, but it seems a bit overdone, said Kirstine KundbyNielsen, analyst at Danske Bank. OIL PRICES PROVIDE DIRECTION Oil prices rose again on Friday, providing support for the dollar and weighing on the pound. Oil prices...

March 20 Reuters Chinese electric vehicle maker Xpeng reported its maiden quarterly profit, riding on strong sales of highermargin models and lucrative technology partnerships. Advanced driverassistance technology and fast charging helped Xpeng's highermargin P7 model stand out in China's crowded EV market, where it also competes with Tesla's Model 3 and Xiaomi's SU7. The model helped drive a 30 jump in the company's vehicle sales to 19.07 billion yuan 2.77 billion in the OctoberDecember period. Xpeng has been trying to license its technology to other automakers and rebrand itself as a physical AI company, following in Tesla's footsteps. The strategy allows it to leverage its driver assistance system and Turing AI chips, and has led to a tieup with Volkswagen, which will develop new EVs in China using Xpeng's technology. The first of these models, the ID. UNYX 08, began mass production last week, and Xpeng expects the collaboration to generate meaningful revenue from technology service fees. Overall, revenue rose to 22.25 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, exceeding analysts' average estimate of 22.13 billion yuan, according to data compiled by LSEG. Xpeng posted a profit of 383.21 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.33 billion yuan a year ago. Analysts have said Xpeng's secondgeneration Vision to Action architecture, designed to enable more humanlike autonomous driving, is a key differentiator that could boost margins and sales of its premium...

US carriers say strong demand is offsetting higher fuel costs Many overseas airlines face reroutings, flight cuts and weaker outlooks Analysts say tight US capacity is helping fare increases stick CHICAGO, March 20 Reuters U.S. airline chiefs are talking about the U.S.Israeli war on Iran in a way that many of their counterparts overseas are not projecting confidence about fares and demand even as fuel costs surge and global aviation is disrupted. For the biggest U.S. carriers, which do not hedge against oil price rises, the shock is showing up mainly in the fuel bill, with jet fuel prices nearly doubling since the conflict began in late February. For many airlines in Europe and Asia, it is also disrupting schedules, complicating operations and clouding outlooks even as they raise surcharges or fares. Major U.S. carriers this week pointed to resilient demand at an industry conference, with United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby saying the revenue environment was really strong. We have a goal this year to fully offset the increase in fuel prices, he said on Tuesday, adding fares booked over the past week were up 15 to 20 and that airlines could, for now, recover 100 of the fuel price increase. United has also trimmed weaker flights, such as some midweek, Saturday and overnight services as the airline would rather leave some demand unmet than keep flying routes that lose money if fuel stays high, Kirby said. Delta Air Lines also said it has the flexibility to cut...

Draft rules reverse proposed capital hikes for big banks Excess capital may be returned through buybacks, lending 'Cracks in coalition' of banks may appear, analyst says TORONTOWASHINGTON, March 20 Reuters While all Wall Street banks are winners under a U.S. proposal to reduce the amount of capital they must hold, institutions with big trading operations stand to benefit more than traditional lenders, and this could potentially pit them against one another as they seek final revisions. Capital at the biggest U.S. banks the amount they have to hold to absorb losses would fall 4.8 under the plan released on Thursday. This would free up billions of dollars for lending, dividends and share buybacks in a victory for the industry, which faced doubledigit capital hikes under a 2023 proposal that was not implemented. Analysts said it will take time to parse thousands of pages of complex draft rules. But it was already clear that the changes will reward banks differently depending on their business models. Some analysts and an executive at a major bank said trading giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley could come out on top under the new regime, even though their trading operations were the original targets of the Basel III draft rule central to Thursday's overhaul. Banks will have 90 days to comment on the lengthy and technical proposal, and firms are expected to make their cases for further cuts in capital requirements, which could represent billions of dollars...

Comments cast doubt on prospect for deal Jindal has not responded to labour questions, Kerner says Jindal has been doing due diligence on TKSE since October FRANKFURT, March 20 Reuters Talks to sell Thyssenkrupp's steel division to India's Jindal Steel International are not making progress and the longawaited deal must not be stalled for months, the German company's deputy supervisory board chairman said on Friday. Juergen Kerner, who is also the deputy head of Germany's IG Metall trade union, said labour representatives had presented Jindal, which has been doing due diligence on Thyssenkrupp's steel unit, also known as TKSE, since October, with a detailed questionnaire. WORKERS LEFT IN LIMBO We were promised answers, but these have subsequently been postponed several times. Apparently, the discussions between Thyssenkrupp AG and Jindal are taking longer than expected, Kerner said in a statement. So things are not moving forward, and that is a bad thing, Kerner said because workers could not afford to be left in limbo for months. In September, Jindal made a nonbinding bid for TKSE, Europe's No. 2 steelmaker, creating a new opportunity for parent Thyssenkrupp to part with a volatile business that it has sought to sell for years. A Thyssenkrupp spokesperson said talks with Jindal Steel were ongoing, also referring to comments by CEO Miguel Lopez last week, who said that discussions covered valuation and future investments and that TKSE would be made...

UK borrows 14.3 bln pounds in February Reuters poll median forecast was 8.5 bln pounds Debt interest payments explain some of the overshoot Iran war weighs on an already tight budget situation Gilt market hammered in recent days MANCHESTER, England, March 20 Reuters Britain's government borrowed a lot more than expected in February, in part due to the erratic timing of debt interest payments, before the shock of the Iran war pushed up borrowing costs and led to calls for more public spending. Public sector net borrowing was 14.3 billion pounds 19.17 billion in February, official figures showed on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had a median forecast of an 8.5 billionpound deficit for the month. The Office for National Statistics cited the timing of debt interest payments as a factor behind the 18 increase in borrowing compared with February 2025. The ONS revised higher its estimate for January's record surplus to 31.9 billion pounds from 30.3 billion pounds previously but the data underscored the broader picture of vulnerable public finances, under strain on various fronts. The U.S.Israeli war on Iran and the ensuing surge in energy prices have sent British government borrowing costs soaring. Britain's heavy reliance on imported natural gas and stubbornly higher inflation have driven a sharper selloff in its government bonds than that seen among international peers. PRESSURE ON GOVERNMENT Finance minister Rachel Reeves, whose budget plans were...

BEIJING, March 20 Reuters China's trade with North Korea rose 22 yearonyear during the first two months of the year, customs data showed on Friday, as their ties improved ahead of the resumption of bilateral transportation links in March. ChinaNorth Korea relations have warmed again in recent months following strain because of Pyongyang's deepening links with Moscow. Chinese President Xi Jinping held his first meeting with North Korea's reclusive leader in six years when Kim Jong Un visited Beijing in September. Twoway trade values between the two nations rose 22 to 418.7 million in January and February, according to China's General Administration of Customs. Beijing typically publishes the JanuaryFebruary data as a combined release to smooth out the effects of the lunar new year, which falls in either month. China's trade with North Korea rebounded in 2025 to preCovid levels, with fullyear volumes reaching 2.73 billion, near the 2.79 billion recorded in 2019, before pandemicera border restrictions curbed bilateral shipments. In the first two months of 2026, China's exports to North Korea rose 19 to 329.5 million, with the top export category remaining human hair. Used in wigmaking, it was valued at 24.3 million, down 26 from a year earlier. Beijing exported 19 more soybean oil, the secondlargest category of exports to its neighbour. Other top exports in the two months included footwear and frozen whole ducks. China's imports from North Korea,...

TAIPEI, March 20 Reuters Taiwan's export orders rose less than expected in February, with demand for its AI and technology products losing momentum in the month that ended with the war in Iran raising the risk of trade disruptions. Here are some details on the data Export orders in February rose 23.8 from a year earlier to 63.88 billion, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said on Friday. That was below analysts' expectations for a gain of 25.5, though it was also the 13th straight monthly gain. Orders for goods from Taiwan, home of the world's largest contract chipmaker TSMC and other tech companies, are considered a bellwether of global technology demand. For March, the ministry said it expected export orders to rise between 38.4 and 42 yearonyear. Uncertainties such as global trade barriers and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on global trade momentum, it said. But the momentum for orders would be supported as new applications such as AI and highperformance computing continue to expand, it added. Taiwan's orders in February for telecoms products were up 55.2 from a year earlier, while those for electronic products jumped 26.2. Overall orders from China dipped 0.2 compared to a 58.9 surge in January. Orders from the United States rose 45.1, after a surge of 64.3 the month before. Orders from Europe were down 5.6, and those from Japan rose 17.8. Reporting by Faith Hung and Liangsa Loh; Editing by Kate Mayberry Source...

US may remove sanctions on Iranian oil stranded in tankers Trump tells Israel not to repeat strikes on Iranian energy Gold lost over 6 this week March 20 Reuters Gold prices edged up on Friday on technical buying, but were headed for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by a firm U.S. dollar and as a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes for nearterm interest rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.6 to 4,675.23 per ounce as of 0702 GMT, rebounding from a near twomonth low hit in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.6 to 4,676.90. Gold held some important technical supports in the weekly time frame and gold may see a recovery to the level where it broke down, around 4,800, said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery. However, bullion has lost over 6 so far this week. Spot gold has fallen more than 10 since the U.S.Israeli strike on Iran on February 28. The dollar has emerged as one of the clearest safehaven winners, strengthening over 2 so far this month. Meanwhile, the Fed kept rates steady on Wednesday and indicated that inflation could rise. Interest rate futures show traders see little chance of a Fed reduction this year, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.FEDWATCH Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but high interest rates turn yieldbearing assets more attractive, while a stronger dollar makes the bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. After notable...

Traders move to price in hikes for BoE and ECB this year; Fed seen leaving rates on hold Hawkish rate repricing hits bonds, topples dollar Oil prices retreat; shares choppy SINGAPORE, March 20 Reuters The dollar headed towards a weekly loss on Friday while bonds remained under pressure, after global central bankers warned that the Middle East war could reignite inflation. A dip in oil prices offered brief relief for markets, but trading stayed choppy and nerves frayed, highlighting how brittle investor confidence remains. Following a hectic week of monetary policy meetings across effectively the Group of Seven G7 nations and others, the key takeaway for investors has been the prospect of a more aggressive policy tightening path. Traders are no longer expecting a Federal Reserve rate cut this year , futures imply a 40 chance of a hike from the Bank of England next month and sources said the European Central Bank may need to begin discussing rate increases in April and possibly tighten policy in June . There's a lot of value in the signal, said Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho's head of macro research for Asia exJapan, of the hawkish rhetoric from central banks this week. It's a messaging to markets that we are on top of this, you don't need to send yields unnecessarily higher, because... the yields are already starting to do the work for them. A rout in global bonds pushed yields to multimonth highs on Thursday, though the selloff showed some signs of abating in...

European nations, Japan willing to help secure Strait of Hormuz US weighs further SPR release Brent up for the week, WTI discount widens SINGAPORE, March 20 Reuters Oil prices fell on Friday as leading European nations and Japan offered to join efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. outlined moves to boost oil supply. Looking to curb soaring oil prices, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. may soon remove sanctions from Iranian oil stranded on tankers, and said a further release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was possible. Brent futures fell 39 cents, or 0.4, to 108.26 a barrel at 0730 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate WTI crude fell 87 cents, or 0.9, to 95.27. Still, for the week, benchmark Brent was on track to rise nearly 5 after Iran hit oil and gas facilities in the Gulf states, forcing production to be curtailed. WTI, however, was set to fall about 4 in its first weekly decline in five weeks. Both benchmarks shed some of their war premiums on Friday morning after world leaders started to acknowledge a need for restraint and deescalation, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. She added that markets will remain sensitive to the critical Hormuz chokepoint. The damage has been inflicted, and even if safe passage for tankers is somehow negotiated through Hormuz, reviving logistics fully fledged can take an awfully long time, Sachdeva said. Till then,...

India dealers offer up to 75oz discount vs 83 last week Festive retail buying much lower than usual Indian jeweller Chinese premiums ease to 1022oz Spot gold prices down over 10 since U.S.Israel strikes on Iran March 20 Reuters Gold discounts in India eased this week from near decadehigh levels hit last week, helped by festive buying and a sharp correction in prices, while premiums in China declined as physical demand softened. Bullion dealers in India this week offered discounts of of up to 75 per ounce over official domestic gold prices inclusive of 6 import and 3 sales levies, down from discounts of up to 83 last week, the highest since July 2016. Retail buying picked up due to Gudi Padwa and Ugadi festivals, but it was still much lower than usual, said a Mumbaibased jeweller. The festivals were celebrated earlier this week, mainly in India's western and southern parts, when buying gold is considered auspicious. Global benchmark spot gold prices have fallen more than 10 since the U.S.Israeli war on Iran started on February 28, pressured by a stronger dollar, which has emerged as one of the clearest safehaven winners. However, demand from Indian jewellers remained muted despite the sharp price correction as they were busy closing their books for the financial year, said a Mumbaibased dealer with a private bank. In top consumer China, bullion traded at premiums of 1022 an ounce over global benchmark prices this week, lower than last week's 2030 premium....

INR down more than 3 over 2026 so far Oil price surge, gas supply disruptions raise economic risks Central bank intervention has helped slow fall traders MUMBAI, March 20 Reuters The Indian rupee fell past the 93 per dollar level for the first time on Friday, on heightened worries over the hit from the Iran warled disruption of global energy supplies on Asia's thirdlargest economy. The rupee fell about 0.7 to 93.2750 against the U.S. dollar, eclipsing its previous low of 92.63 hit on Wednesday. The currency has slumped more than 2 since the Iran war broke out, on concerns that a prolonged spike in crude prices would slow growth and raise inflation in the world's thirdbiggest oil importing and consuming country. The oil shock has prompted foreign investors to pull out more than 8 billion from Indian stocks this month in the largest outflow since January 2025. With no letup in the conflict that has killed thousands of people, spread to the wider Middle East and hit global energy supplies, the rupee looks increasingly vulnerable and could be prone to slip to 95 per dollar. INR could be more vulnerable if the conflict drags on, which mainly reflects its exposure to higher energy prices, said Vivek Rajpal, Asia macro strategist at JB Drax Honore. Currencies backed by strong policy frameworks and external balances should remain relatively resilient while energy dependent currencies are likely to stay vulnerable. Oil prices surged to nearly 120 per barrel,...

Micron Technology drops as higher spending plans draw scrutiny Volatile oil prices keep investors on edge Tesla and Nvidia lose ground SP 500 0.27, Nasdaq 0.28, Dow 0.44 Reuters Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, with declines in Micron Technology and Tesla, as worries about inflation stemming from soaring oil prices left investors pessimistic about the potential for future interest rate cuts. Investors focused on warnings by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday that the economic outlook remains uncertain amid a U.S.Israeli war with Iran that has sent energy prices soaring and created fears of inflation. The Fed left rates unchanged, as expected. Interest rate futures suggest traders see little chance of interest rate cuts before mid2027, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Echoing the Fed, the Bank of England and European Central Bank held their interest rates steady and pointed to uncertainty arising from the Middle East conflict. 'A REAL INFLATION RISK' The market is digesting a little bit more of Powell and what some other central banks said overnight, that this is a real inflation risk, said Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina. Brent crude was up but well off session highs of 119 a barrel after Iran attacked energy targets overnight in the Middle East, leading the U.S. government to take steps to expand supply. Micron Technology dropped 3.8 after the memory...

HONG KONG, March 20 Reuters The dollar slipped from multimonth highs this week as soaring energy prices upended the outlook for global interest rates, with the U.S. Federal Reserve left alone as the only major central bank that is not expected to raise rates this year. Before the U.S.Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February, investors expected two Fed cuts this year and now they believe one is a distant prospect. Yet the outlook for other major central banks has turned even more hawkish even faster. The euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc and Australian dollar headed for weekly gains against the greenback as policymakers laid the groundwork for higher interest rates in response to the war in the Middle East, which has choked oil and gas supplies. The euro , marginally softer at 1.1558 in the Asia morning, is up 1.2 for the week. The yen , which eased to around 158 per dollar, has gained 0.9 and sterling , hovering at 1.3408, is up 1.4. Benchmark Brent crude futures are up nearly 50 since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, which has all but closed the sea lane for Middle East energy exports. The European Central Bank kept rates on hold on Thursday but warned of inflation driven by energy prices and sources told Reuters policymakers are likely to start discussing hikes next month a contrast with the Fed's waitandsee approach. Investors swept away expectations for a long hold on European rates at 2 to price in a hike by June. The Fed is signalling a longer...

MUMBAI, Mar 20 Reuters The Indian rupee is set to weaken toward a lifetime low on Friday, pressured by persistently high oil prices, although a pullback from recent highs in crude is likely to limit the extent of losses. The 1month nondeliverable forward indicated the rupee will open near 92.90 versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 92.63 on Wednesday. India money markets were closed on Thursday due to a local holiday. The dollarrupee 1month NDF rose to a high of 93.80 on Thursday, lifted by a fresh surge in oil prices after Iran retaliated against an Israeli strike by hitting Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, a key LNG hub, with the damage expected to take years to repair. Had the level held, it would have implied the rupee opening around 93.3093.40. However, the NDF pulled back amid the Brent crude cooling off after briefly surging to near 120. Brent was last at 105.20, retreating after major European nations and Japan signalled willingness to help secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States outlined measures to boost oil supply. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he had urged Israel not to repeat attacks on Iranian gas infrastructure further weighed on oil prices. Reflecting volatile oil prices, the dollar index hit a high of 100.30 before slipping back below 99.50. U.S. equity futures pared Thursday's losses. While the worst of the oil jolt appears to have faded, offering a sort of relief, the broader backdrop...

ECB expected to maintain interest rates at 2 Industrials and miners lead declines in European stocks March 19 Reuters European shares slid to a near twoweek low on Thursday, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drained appetite for risk ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision. The panEuropean STOXX 600 fell 2 to 586.05 points by 0934 GMT, led lower by industrial stocks, which were the biggest drag on the benchmark. Selling pressure swept across the region in step with weaker Asian markets. Bourses in Frankfurt, Madrid and London fell more than 2, while Paris and Milan were down more than 1. Norway, however, climbed 1.2 to a fresh record high, extending its winning streak to a seventh straight session. Almost every major subsector was trading in negative territory. Miners shed 5 as gold prices retreated, while weakness among several heavyweight financial stocks added to the market's woes. Europe's fear gauge index firmed for the second straight session. A modest rebound early in the week faded as the intensifying U.S.Israel war with Iran weighed on sentiment. Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East following Israel's strike on its major South Pars gas field, pushing oil prices higher and reinforcing fears of a prolonged conflict. This buythedip situation is nice, we're not sure there's enough money and confidence right now to drag markets upward, said Michael Field, chief European equity strategist at...

ZURICH, March 19 Reuters The Swiss National Bank made the following statement after its policy review on Thursday The Swiss National Bank is leaving the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0. Banks sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. The discount for sight deposits above this threshold still stands at 0.25 percentage points. Given the conflict in the Middle East, the SNBs willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased. The SNB thereby counters a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland. The conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters is higher than in December due to the rise in energy prices. Mediumterm inflationary pressure, however, has remained virtually unchanged since the last monetary policy assessment. The monetary policy helps to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development. The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust its monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability over the medium term. As expected, inflation has risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, from 0.0 in November to 0.1 in February. This increase was driven in particular by higher goods inflation. With the rise in energy prices due to the escalation in the Middle East, inflation is likely to increase more strongly in the coming...

Taiwan c.bank keeps policy interest rate unchanged as expected Central bank ups economic growth forecast for this year Bank sees inflation risk from war in Middle East TAIPEI, March 19 Reuters Taiwan's central bank on Thursday raised its growth outlook substantially for the year thanks to booming tech exports, but it also raised its inflation forecast and said it could tighten monetary policy if the Middle East war dragged on. The central bank left the benchmark discount rate at 2, in a unanimous decision and in line with predictions from a Reuters poll where all 29 economists had forecast no change. The central bank raised its economic growth forecast to 7.28 from the previous prediction of 3.67 given in December, saying tech demand was expected to drive exports this year. In view of the uncertainty surrounding the global economic and financial outlook, as well as the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East and U.S. trade policy on domestic prices and the economy, the central bank considered it appropriate to stand pat on interest rates, it added. Governor Yang Chinlong told reporters that most international institutions had not made significant changes to their forecasts for Taiwan's economic growth rate because of the war. But he warned If the conflict drags on, it could have a relatively large impact on energy prices, and correspondingly, a greater impact on global economic growth. Our monetary policy will move in a tighter direction; the...

Regular wage growth 3.8 versus Reuters poll 4.0 Increase is weakest since late 2020 Bank of England watching inflation heat in jobs market But BoE now also focused on risks from war in Middle East Jobless rate holds at 5.2 LONDON, March 19 Reuters British wages rose at their slowest pace since late 2020 in the three months to January, according to official data which also suggested a weakening in employment might have bottomed out before the start of the war in the Middle East. The figures would normally boost bets on the Bank of England cutting interest rates. But the central bank is widely expected to signal at 1200 GMT that it is waiting to see the impact of the war on Britain's economy before deciding its next move. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said Thursday's data would not change the BoE Monetary Policy Committee's immediate views. Priorities have shifted, with MPC members set to turn their attention to the new upside risks to the inflation outlook, she said. This could see interest rates staying higher for longer, raising the prospect of a more pronounced loosening in the labour market over the coming months. Last week ONS data showed zero growth in Britain's economy in January, but a surge in oil prices means an expected fall in inflation back towards its 2 target in April may prove more fleeting than the BoE had hoped. SLOWEST PAY GROWTH SINCE 2020 The Office for National Statistics said regular earnings, which exclude bonuses,...

Fed, BoC, and BoJ keep interest rates on hold amid inflation concerns ECB expected to hold interest rates steady Oil rises over 115 a barrel after Iran strikes Middle East energy facilities March 19 Reuters Gold prices fell to their lowest level in more than a month on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields, while a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve further dampened bullion's appeal. Spot gold fell 2.2 to 4,710.88 per ounce as of 0920 GMT, its lowest since February 6. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 3.6 to 4,721.40. Gold fell sharply for a second day after breaking key support below 5,000, amid a stronger dollar and a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the latest FOMC meeting, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. The dollar and benchmark 10year U.S. Treasury yields rose, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and diminishing the appeal of the nonyielding metal. Top central banks from the U.S., Canada and Japan struck hawkish tones on Wednesday, wary that rising energy prices could spark a fresh wave of inflation. The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, but will make clear it stands ready to raise them if the Iran war fuels a lasting surge in euro zone inflation. While gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, high interest rates curb its appeal by raising the cost of holding bullion...

Brent gains over 7, WTI rises more than 3 Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait hit by Iran missile attacks US Fed holds rates steady, sees higher inflation amid war LONDON, March 19 Reuters Oil prices jumped on Thursday, with benchmark Brent rising to its highest in more than a week to more than 115 a barrel, after Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East following Israel's strike on its South Pars gas field, a major escalation in the war. Brent futures were up 6.08, or 5.7, at 113.46 a barrel by 0814 GMT, after climbing almost 8 to the highest since March 9 to a session high of 115.10. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 57 cents, or 0.6, to 96.89 a barrel, after earlier gaining almost 4 to trade at 100.02. WTI has been trading at its widest discount to Brent in 11 years due to releases from U.S. strategic reserves and higher freight costs, while renewed attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities boosted support for Brent. Escalation in the Middle East, precise attacks on oil infrastructure, and the death of Iranian leadership all point to a prolonged disruption in oil supplies, Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said in a note. Adding fuel to the fire, the Federal Reserve served 'steady rates' with a hawkish narrative, pointing to the economic concerns that follow a war. U.S. FED HOLDS STEADY The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday, projecting higher inflation as policymakers take stock of the impact of the...

New US playbook for crypto assets This week, the U.S SEC and the CFTC jointly issued new guidance clarifying how federal laws apply to crypto . The duo outlined the conditions under which a token transitions from being a security to a commodity. SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins said that the new guide “acknowledges what the former administration refused to recognize – that most crypto assets are not themselves securities.” TODAY 🚨: The Commission issued an interpretation that clarifies the application of federal securities laws to crypto assets.This is a major step to provide greater clarity regarding the Commission’s treatment of crypto assets.Read the release here: https://t.co/DDykVLHZQI pic.twitter.com/zbLFS2JH6g — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (@SECGov) March 17, 2026 What does it mean for brokers? The framework sets clearer boundaries for participation in crypto while redefining their approach to risk oversight and compliance in this evolving market. The risk is now in the day-to-day operations, where the status of a crypto asset can change depending on how it is marketed. Our interpretation on crypto assets—grounded in existing law and informed by extensive public input—acknowledges what the former administration refused to recognize...Most crypto assets are not themselves securities. pic.twitter.com/fbHan0vmmb — Paul Atkins (@SECPaulSAtkins) March 17, 2026 It also marks a major milestone in crypto regulation, introducing a five-category classification system that replaces the previous regulatory uncertainty. However, by shifting from a disclosure-focused model to one centered on market conduct , the framework also raises concerns about potential gaps in investor protection and the balance between innovation and oversight. Banks apply insider trading rules to prediction markets Policies are also shifting in the fast‑moving prediction markets space. Big banks are starting to look at how their existing compliance rules apply to prediction markets . This is one of the first clear signs that event‑based trading is moving into formal corporate policy rather than sitting on the sidelines. Join the inaugural Finance Magnates Singapore Summit 2026 , which will bring together brokers, fintechs, banks, EMIs, wealth managers, and hedge funds across APAC. JPMorgan Chase is among the first to review its internal rules on staff trading these contracts and may issue explicit guidance for its 320,000 employees on using platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Crypto exchanges push into TradeFi Meanwhile, in crypto land, diversification is quickly becoming the new house rule. Crypto platforms are increasingly moving into trading products that used to belong firmly to traditional finance. The latest example is Kraken, which in late February said it would offer perpetual futures on tokenized stocks to non-US clients, giving traders 24/7 access to equity-like price movements with up to 20x leverage and the ability to go long or short. These products initially track tokenized versions of major equity indices, commodities and well-known public companies. Perpetual futures are often described as the missing link in tokenized equities because they have no expiry date. IG considers crossing the Atlantic IG Group is considering shifting its listing from London to New York to deepen its footprint in one of the world’s biggest financial markets. The broker said it is reviewing where its shares are listed, where the company is legally based, and whether it should pursue acquisitions as part of a broader growth strategy. Chief Financial Officer Clifford Abrahams told Bloomberg that a U.S. listing could help IG stand out more among its competitors, draw in fresh investors, and give it more options for deal-making. He also noted that such a move could benefit employees by giving them better access to global capital markets and potentially more attractive equity-based incentives. IG reported record revenue of £1.12 billion in 2025 , supported by strong double-digit growth in net trading revenue and a boost in new clients from its Freetrade integration. Net trading revenue for the 12 months to 31 December 2025 rose 10% to £1,004.6 million, up from £910.6 million in 2024. Swissquote bullish on 2026 revenue More numbers came from Swissquote, where the firm expects to end 2026 with net revenue of CHF 760 million and pre-tax profit of CHF 385 million . It has also lifted its 2028 net revenue goal from CHF 900 million to CHF 950 million, but trimmed its pre-tax profit margin target from 55 percent to 53 percent. This guidance follows a strong 2025, when Swissquote reported net revenue of CHF 723.3 million and pre-tax profit of CHF 420.2 million, up 9.4 percent and 21.6 percent, respectively. Last year’s revenue was helped by higher trading activity, which pushed net fee and commission income up 17.5 percent to CHF 209.4 million and net trading income up 52.6 percent to CHF 119.5 million. Colmex Pro to exit CFDs, halts new clients It is not all well with some brokers in the CFD space, and Colmex Pro is the latest example. The Cyprus-regulated firm has stopped taking on new retail clients for contracts for difference (CFDs), as it gradually pulls out of the product line. Colmex Pro says this move is part of a longer-term plan to shift its business toward investment products and market access services. The broker now plans to focus on offerings such as equities, ETFs and other exchange-traded instruments. HTFX to exit UK after dropping CySEC license HTFX is scaling back its regulated presence in Europe after applying to cancel its Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) licence on January 7, 2026. The application came shortly after the broker officially renounced its CySEC licence earlier in the month, signalling a broader withdrawal from two major European regulatory markets. Corporate filings show that HTFX’s ownership has undergone significant changes since 2023. Before October of that year, control rested with Lijun Li and an offshore company, which held authority from August 2022. The UK entity is now managed by Stephen Williams and Levy Benarroch, serving as director and CEO, respectively. The company’s dual exit from CySEC and the FCA underscores a clear shift away from the region’s tightly regulated frameworks. Admirals not onboarding CFD users under Jordan and Kenya Licenses Admirals stopped onboarding clients under its Jordanian license in the fourth quarter of 2025 and has also ceased taking on new clients through its Kenyan entity. Instead, new traders from both countries are now being registered under the company’s Seychelles license. A customer service executive told Finance Magnates that clients had been notified about the shift and were offered solutions tailored to regulatory requirements and individual needs. However, the representative said the company could not share additional details for compliance reasons. iFOREX shares stagnate It’s been two weeks since any activity was seen in iFOREX Financial Trading Holdings shares on the London Stock Exchange, and the lack of movement is drawing attention. The CFD broker, which finally listed on the LSE’s Main Market on February 25 after an eight-month delay, was trading around 207 pence per share —about 6% higher than its 195p offer price. However, this slight gain doesn’t reveal much about investor sentiment or trading momentum. When iFOREX launched its IPO at 195 pence per share, it issued 4.49 million new shares, equal to just 20.2% of its total share capital. None of the existing investors sold their stakes, keeping most of the stock tightly held. The offering raised £8.75 million, giving the company an overall valuation of roughly £43.3 million, but with so few shares in public hands, the market now feels more frozen than free. Is the Comoros license mirage ending? The only legitimate financial regulator in the Union of Comoros is the Banque Centrale des Comores, despite claims from a few island-based authorities . Some entities suggest that a small fee and tropical branding can buy regulatory legitimacy, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. The Union of Comoros consists of three islands off the East African coast—Ngazidja (Grande Comore), Mwali (Mohéli) and Ndzwani (Anjouan). While the country has a history of political and legal quirks, its financial regulation is more complicated than advertised. Two local bodies, the Anjouan Offshore Finance Authority (AOFA) and the Mwali International Services Authority (MISA), claim to issue banking, forex, and insurance licenses. However, their authority to do so is highly questionable. CFD brokers face tougher UK reporting rules Still in the regulatory front, the FCA confirmed new rules to improve how financial firms , including CFD brokers, report operational incidents and issues involving third-party providers. The regulator said the updated framework will make reporting clearer, more consistent, and easier to follow. It is also meant to help authorities respond faster to serious disruptions such as cyberattacks or power outages, while giving firms clearer guidance on what and when to report. The changes follow a rise in cyber threats and operational risks across the sector. According to the FCA, more than 40% of cyber incidents reported in 2025 involved third-party providers. Recent outages affecting services linked to Cloudflare and Amazon Web Services have underscored the industry’s growing dependence on external technology partners. Brokers confident in Singapore’s FX growth Finally, as foreign exchange (FX) trading activity continues to rise in Singapore, market participants express confidence that the country’s connectivity and trading infrastructure can support both current and future demand. Industry stakeholders say the systems in place are well-equipped to handle growing transaction volumes and increasing global participation. According to the Bank for International Settlements’ triennial survey of global FX and OTC derivatives markets, Singapore’s average daily FX trading volume rose by 60% between April 2022 and April 2025. The growth was largely driven by strong trading in the US dollar, Japanese yen, and euro, cementing Singapore’s position as one of the world’s leading FX hubs. At the same time, Singapore’s Monetary Authority of Singapore is advancing its leadership in asset tokenization through Project Guardian , launched in 2022. The initiative has already seen money market funds and bonds tokenized and settled on-chain, reflecting the country’s balanced approach to innovation and regulation. This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

Kalshi has raised more than $1 billion in new funding, valuing the prediction market platform at $22 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The funding round comes amid a fresh setback in Nevada, where a state court imposed a 14‑day restraining order forcing the prediction market to stop offering sports, entertainment and election contracts while regulators press their case that it is operating as an unlicensed gambling operator. Kalshi was temporarily barred by a judge from offering its prediction market contracts in Nevada, after state regulators said the company didn’t have a gaming license. https://t.co/in8URVlJWj — Bloomberg (@business) March 20, 2026 The order, issued by Nevada’s First Judicial District Court after a federal appeals panel cleared the way for state enforcement to proceed, bars Kalshi from taking bets in the state at least until an April 3 hearing on the longer‑term status of prediction markets there. Funding Led by Coatue The Wall Street Journal reported that Coatue led the latest investment, which follows a previous $1 billion round backed by Paradigm, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, ARK Invest, and CapitalG. The round, led by Coatue Management, doubles the company’s valuation from December, when it was worth about $11 billion. Kalshi’s annualized revenue has reached about $1.5 billion, with trading volume in February topping $10 billion—twelve times higher than six months ago. The funding highlights continued investor interest in prediction markets, despite political and regulatory challenges surrounding the sector’s legality and oversight. Keep reading: Polymarket Grabs Nearly 55% of Prediction Markets as Iran Bets Test CFTC Crackdown The latest setback in Nevada underscores how exposed Kalshi still is to state-level enforcement, even as investors mark it up to $22 billion. In February, a panel of judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit refused Kalshi’s emergency bid to pause civil action by Nevada regulators, effectively clearing the way for the state to move ahead with allegations that the CFTC -regulated platform is running unlicensed sports betting under the guise of prediction markets. Join the inaugural Finance Magnates Singapore Summit 2026 , which will bring together brokers, fintechs, banks, EMIs, wealth managers, and hedge funds across APAC. Legal experts say the ruling strengthens the hand of state gaming boards in their clashes with federally supervised event-contract venues, and it adds to a growing list of forums where Kalshi has struggled to convince courts that commodity-derivatives rules preempt traditional gambling law. Legal Scrutiny Mounts Arizona’s attorney general this week filed criminal charges accusing Kalshi of operating an illegal gambling business. The company denied the claims, saying it remains compliant under federal rules. Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which allows it to offer event-based contracts nationwide. An Ohio federal judge recently refused Kalshi’s request to block state enforcement, saying Ohio’s power to regulate gambling outweighs the company’s arguments about how its platform operates. The Arizona case is the first time a state has brought criminal charges against Kalshi. The move also pushes back against a growing effort in Washington to put prediction markets under federal control alone, widening the rift between U.S. regulators and state authorities. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has taken a more aggressive stance , ordering the agency to step into court fights and arguing that federal derivatives law, not state gambling rules, should govern event contracts. He portrays the string of state actions against Kalshi, Coinbase, Crypto.com and Polymarket as part of a coordinated state-level campaign. This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

After a week of geopolitical shock, prediction markets have returned to routine. Trading continues, positions are opened and closed, and the machinery keeps running. On the surface, it looks like business as usual. But a few developments were hard to miss. Platforms have started testing price competition, while banks and regulators are raising more questions about insider trading — a sign they are beginning to take the risks of this market more seriously. Here’s what mattered this week. What Moved Prediction Markets This Week Pricing Starts to Matter One of the more practical shifts this week came from pricing. MEXC introduced zero-fee trading , a model familiar from crypto and derivatives, showing platforms are now competing more directly for trading flow. shift changes the focus. When pricing becomes part of the competition, traders begin to compare execution, liquidity, and product quality — not just access. Rules Are No Longer Theoretical Banks are beginning to apply insider trading frameworks to prediction markets, treating them as an extension of existing financial activity. Enforcement is moving in parallel. Kalshi is facing charges in Arizona over alleged unlicensed gambling activity, highlighting how differently these markets can be interpreted depending on jurisdiction. Prediction markets are being tested against the same legal frameworks as everything else. Join the inaugural Finance Magnates Singapore Summit 2026 , which will bring together brokers, fintechs, banks, EMIs, wealth managers, and hedge funds across APAC. Kalshi’s CEO called the Arizona charges “a clear overreach,” framing the case as a broader fight over federal versus state authority. The rule of law applies to everyone - including state governments.The Arizona Attorney General’s charges are baseless and a clear overreach. It’s gamesmanship from a politician who’s up for reelection.The charges claim that putting money on “a contingent future event or… https://t.co/TU4I8HV1CT — Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 18, 2026 Liquidity Concentrates, Institutions Hesitate Polymarket now accounts for roughly 55% of global prediction market activity , with geopolitical events continuing to drive volume. The platform also signed a partnership with Major League Baseball , giving it access to official data for event-based contracts — a step toward more structured inputs. However, strong liquidity and high-profile partnerships have not yet translated into institutional participation. Reports suggest funds are actively monitoring the space but are not trading. The reasons are familiar: regulatory uncertainty, uneven liquidity, and unresolved questions about how these contracts should be classified. For now, prediction markets are visible — but not yet widely used by institutional investors. Quote of the Week After a period of lawsuits and uncertainty, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is starting to define its position more clearly. The agency released long-awaited guidance and opened a rule-making process, signalling that prediction markets are now firmly on its agenda. Prediction markets are one of the most exciting innovations in financial markets. Yet for too long, the @CFTC has failed to provide guidance for these markets being used by millions of Americans. This ends today. Read what steps the agency is taking here⬇️… — Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) March 12, 2026 Number of the Week $600 million. That’s how much state regulators say they are losing in sports betting tax revenue as prediction markets operate outside existing licensing frameworks. Authorities in eleven U.S. states have issued cease-and-desist orders against prediction market platforms, arguing they effectively function as unlicensed sportsbooks. The Friction of the Week If prediction markets can’t be stopped, they are likely to be steered. That seems to be the logic emerging on the regulatory side. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has begun clarifying how these markets should operate, releasing guidance and opening a formal rule-making process. At the same time, state regulators are taking a different approach — issuing cease-and-desist orders and treating the same activity as unlicensed gambling. The result is a split system. Until that gap closes, the market will keep operating in both worlds at once. Bottom Line This week reinforced an ongoing trend. Prediction markets are now being treated like markets — priced, regulated, and questioned on the same terms as everything around them. But that process is uneven. They were built to price uncertainty. Now they are being tested by it. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

Coinbase has launched stock perpetual futures for eligible non-US users, expanding its offering of crypto, equities, and prediction markets. The launch comes as perpetual futures have gained broader adoption, with monthly volumes on decentralized exchanges exceeding US$1.2 trillion in 2025 , as investors used perps to manage risk amid flat spot markets. “Everything Exchange” Adds Equity Perpetuals Abroad The company said in a blog post on Friday that the product is not available to US persons at this time, but it is “working to expand this offering to additional regions in the future.” Join the inaugural Finance Magnates Singapore Summit 2026 , which will bring together brokers, fintechs, banks, EMIs, wealth managers, and hedge funds across APAC. The contracts are accessible on Coinbase Advanced for retail users and Coinbase International Exchange for institutions. They provide leveraged, cash-settled exposure to major US stocks and indices, including Apple and Nvidia, in a format familiar to crypto traders. The launch follows Coinbase’s earlier moves to offer regulated crypto futures and 24/5 cash equities in the US, alongside Kalshi-powered prediction markets in all 50 states. The company has described its platform as an “everything exchange” where users can switch between tokens, stocks, and event contracts. Equity Perpetuals Available Outside United States Stock perpetuals form a central part of Coinbase’s 2026 strategy, which emphasizes stablecoins, its Base layer-2 network, and a multi-asset brokerage model. 🚨JUST IN: COINBASE LAUNCHES 24/7 STOCK PERPETUAL FUTURES FOR NON-U.S. TRADERS @Coinbase has launched perpetual futures on U.S. equities for non-U.S. traders, offering round-the-clock exposure to Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and S&P 500 ETFs with up to 20x leverage.The product… pic.twitter.com/DxSoqD5YXS — BSCN (@BSCNews) March 20, 2026 Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in January that the company’s top priority is to expand the everything exchange globally across crypto, equities, prediction markets, and commodities, covering spot, futures, and options. Currently, the equity perpetuals are available only to non-US customers. In Europe, Coinbase launched perpetual futures for Coinbase Advanced users in 26 countries under its Markets in Financial Instruments Directive entity earlier in March. This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.

Data security remains a challenge for CFD brokers in 2026 amid the AI boom. Cyberattackers can discover and exploit system vulnerabilities much faster thanks to AI technology and develop new, sophisticated techniques. AI-driven phishing attacks have gone all the way from “spray-to-pray” tactics to “hyperpersonalisation” and even polymorphic threats. According to identity verification platform Sumsub, “rogue” AI agents and increasingly versatile hacking schemes are only two of the risks facing the brokerage industry right now. Between 2024 and 2025, the number of advanced fraud attempts soared from 10% to 28%, a Sumsub report indicates. At the heart of the problem is the unethical usage of generative AI. Generative AI agents have enabled hackers to easily and inexpensively forge IDs, documents like receipts, bank statements, and other payment proofs. This has “industrialised” fraudulent activity. Despite the concerning nature of these developments - which only underscore that in the wrong hands, AI technology can be a destructive force - for most brokers, data security is still a matter of compliance, IT, or both. A checkbox. A matter of GDPR adherence. A hybrid service for firefighting data breaches, sealing firewalls, passing audits, and avoiding fines. But as digital ecosystems evolved beyond fixed networks and legal frameworks like GDPR, MiFID, or MiFIR, this traditional defensive logic became obsolete. Data security is no longer a compliance, back-office, or IT concern; it’s a front-line driver of customer trust, satisfaction, retention, and revenue. Regulation only sets the baseline Financial services and data protection directives like GDPR and MiFID II set the framework for how brokers and other financial institutions should operate and protect client data. Meeting these norms keeps brokers in the market, but it doesn’t give them a competitive edge. In a marketplace where traders have almost limitless choice, meeting the baseline doesn’t create differentiation, nor does it protect lifetime value. Whilst compliance teams focus on frameworks and audit trails, traders experience security in entirely different terms. They notice platform stability during volatile markets. They observe how quickly a broker responds to suspicious activity. They sense whether their funds and data feel protected. These perceptions shape trust, and, in turn, trust shapes behaviour. Security incidents, the day-to-day trust breakers End users don’t experience security incidents as technical glitches but rather as friction - i.e., difficulty logging in after a password reset, unexplained delays in fund withdrawals, platform downtime during critical trading windows. Moments like these break traders’ confidence, driving them to other providers. When traders encounter such frictions frequently, or worse, they learn of a data breach or system compromise, their emotional response is immediate. Trading activity slows, and withdrawal requests keep flowing in. This behavioural shift is where the true commercial cost of weak security emerges. It is not always captured in incident reports or compliance audits. But it shows up in churn rates, declining average deposits, and reduced trading volumes amongst high-value clients. Data security and customer engagement go hand in hand Brokers increasingly rely on third-party platforms to manage customer data, orchestrate engagement journeys, and trigger real-time communications. Yet many overlook a critical question: how secure is the infrastructure processing this sensitive behavioural and financial data? The security posture of customer engagement platforms like Solitics directly impacts broker risk exposure . Solitics’ platform combines SOC 2 Type II audit standards with ISO/IEC 27001 certification and AWS-hosted infrastructure, which enables brokers to activate real-time behavioural data whilst maintaining enterprise-grade security NIST. This dual capability of commercial agility paired with operational security is becoming table stakes for customer engagement in regulated financial services. Join the inaugural Finance Magnates Singapore Summit 2026 , which will bring together brokers, fintechs, banks, EMIs, wealth managers, and hedge funds across APAC. The result is a new standard: customer engagement strategies leveraging a secure-by-design architecture to process live data from the trading activity with the same care brokers apply to their core trading infrastructure. Security is no longer just about avoiding fines. It is about protecting the relationship between Broker and Trader, as well as the revenue it generates. But to deliver value to traders, brokers need real-time behavioural data. This is where marketing automation comes in. On one hand, martech platforms provide brokers with the data they need, but on the other hand, the risk that comes with such solutions remains high. Reportedly, several marketing and marketing automation platforms have been fined due to flagrant GDPR violations and misuse of private data. Unfortunately, data violations are commonplace in the martech space. That’s primarily because marketing automation platforms require brokers to externalise their data, which creates security vulnerabilities and raises compliance risks. Besides that, another crucial issue that brokers grapple with is data fragmentation. Championing data security with a fundamentally different approach The fundamental difference between customer engagement infrastructures like Solitics and traditional martech and data security tools is the approach. Unlike traditional security tools, which focus on logs, alerts, and threat detection, which are necessary yet insufficient, Solitics provides insight into how security-related events—or even the perception of risk—affect customer behaviour in real time . Did a trader reduce activity after a failed login attempt? Did they contact support following a market outage? Did they initiate a withdrawal shortly after receiving a password reset email? These signals, when monitored and acted upon through secure infrastructure, offer early warnings that trust is eroding. By translating complex behavioural data into actionable insights like these, Solitics meets the most pressing demand brokers have today - timely and contextual communication adapted to each trader’s behaviour and situation. This is possible thanks to Solitics’ unique architecture. Functionality powered by architecture Solitics integrates seamlessly into the broker's existing infrastructure without requiring data migration. Interactive pop-ups addressing user-specific security issues (i.e., password changes, withdrawal processing, or account verification) can re-engage traders at moments of friction, whilst audit logs and access controls ensure full compliance with GDPR and financial services regulations. The result is infrastructure that combines SOC 2 Type II compliance, ISO/IEC 27001 certification, and enterprise-grade encryption with sub-second response times to behavioural signals. Security protocols—from role-based permissions to data encryption—operate without creating latency that degrades customer experience. Brokers maintain complete control over their data whilst gaining the agility to intervene before trust erodes. This approach demonstrates what forward-thinking brokers already understand: security and engagement aren't competing priorities. When implemented correctly, security infrastructure becomes the foundation for sustainable customer relationships. Brokers who understand that will succeed in 2026. This article was written by FM Contributors at www.financemagnates.com.

The euro area recorded a trade deficit of EUR1.9 billion in January, as exports and imports both fell sharply from a year earlier, data from Eurostat showed on Friday. The deficit widened from EUR1.4 billion in January 2025 and marked a reversal from the EUR11.2 billion surplus recorded in December 2025. FXStreet had pencilled in a widening of the surplus to EUR12.8 billion. Euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world declined 7.6% year-on-year to EUR215.3 billion in January, while imports dropped 7.3% to EUR217.2 billion. The shift into deficit from December was driven largely by machinery and vehicles, where the surplus plunged to EUR1.6 billion from EUR13.2 billion the previous month. Compared with a year earlier, the modest widening in the deficit reflected weaker surpluses in chemicals and machinery, partly offset by an improved energy balance. The chemicals surplus fell to EUR16.7 billion from EUR24.6 billion in January 2025, while the machinery and vehicles surplus narrowed to EUR1.6 billion from EUR5.6 billion. By contrast, the energy deficit improved to EUR19.2 billion from EUR26.2 billion. For the full year 2025, the euro area posted a trade surplus of EUR149.9 billion, down from EUR159.0 billion in 2024. Exports rose 2.4% to EUR2.94 trillion, while imports increased 2.8% to EUR2.79 trillion. Intra-euro area trade climbed 2.0% to EUR2.67 trillion. Across the EU, the bloc recorded a wider trade deficit of EUR5.9 billion in January, compared with EUR5.4 billion a year earlier, and down from a EUR12.3 billion surplus in December. Extra-EU exports fell 10.0% year-on-year to EUR189.2 billion in January, while imports declined 9.5% to EUR195.1 billion. The EU's machinery and vehicles surplus dropped sharply to EUR1.7 billion from EUR8.4 billion a year earlier, while the chemicals surplus narrowed. The energy deficit improved to EUR21.5 billion from EUR29.3 billion. On a seasonally adjusted basis, euro area exports fell 1.9% in January from December, while imports dropped 2.8%, lifting the monthly surplus to EUR12.1 billion from EUR10.3 billion. In the EU, seasonally adjusted exports declined 2.8% and imports fell 3.7%, with the surplus rising to EUR10.3 billion. Notably, the EU's trade surplus with the US fell 49% to EUR9.2 billion in January from EUR18.1 billion a year ago. Its trade deficit with China widened 3.8% to EUR32.5 billion from EUR31.3 billion. By Eva Castanedo, Alliance News reporter Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There are some holding relatively close by for EUR/USD and AUD/USD at the 1.1500 and 0.7050 levels respectively. However, they aren't likely to feature much into play. As things stand, dollar sentiment remains the key driver of price action as we look to close out the week. In that lieu, US-Iran headlines, oil prices, and the risk mood are all bigger factors influencing trading sentiment. And after all, they are pretty much all bound together still in trading this week. The dollar fell off yesterday despite some mixed market sentiment. Central bank rate hike expectations are growing and that pinned down equities. However, Wall Street did post a modest recovery in hopes that the Middle East conflict will end sooner rather than later. That also saw oil prices come off the boil with Brent crude in particular closing at $108.65, after having hit a high just above $119. So, the mix of everything will once again be in focus. That alongside the bond market too, after seeing 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.32% overnight before settling down to 4.25%. With central banks back in focus though, short-term yields are also one to keep an eye out for. A big mover yesterday was 2-year gilt yields, which shot up by over 30 bps to 4.43%. 2-year Treasury yields also jumped from 3.78% to a high of 3.95% but dropped back off after to 3.79%. As such, rate spreads will also be a consideration for the dollar against some major currencies at this time. For now though, we are seeing the dollar find a bit of respite in what has been quite a mixed week before the sharper drop yesterday. But I would expect things to heat up later in the day, especially when we get closer to US trading again. For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here . Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know!

The declines in the major indices were symmetrically worse going from the Dow, to the S&P to the Nasdaq. Rounding, the Dow fell -1.00%, the S&P fell -1.50%, and the Nasdaq fell by -2.00%. All three indices also closed below its 200 day MA this week. The Dow 200 day MA is at 46562. The index closed at 45577.47 The S&P 200 day MA is at 6621.73. The index closed at 6506.48 The Nasdaq 200 day MA is at 22248.94. The index closed at 21647.61 For the trading week: Dow fell -2.11% S&P fell -1.90% Nasdaq fell -2.07% Super Micro Computer tumbled on the back of charges from the Justice Department of smuggling Nvidia chips to China. From the gainers oil is higher by 2.8% and so are oil stocks led by Occidental, Exxon .

The market is sensing that energy prices will stay higher for longer as the US and Israel struggle to define a plan for peace and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump today in a Truth Social post said it would be easy to re-open the strait and that the US was prepared to do it alone. The market doesn't believe it as Brent crude oil is now up $4 to $112.68. There is also a crunch in natural gas, fertilizer, sulpher and other goods that normally flow from the area. With that, US 12-month inflation breakevens are now up to 5.3%. That's a potentially crushing number of the US economy as it would almost certainly force the Fed to hike rates. That's the highest level since March 2023 and comes in stark contrast to the disinflationary impulses we saw in December. It truly looked like the Fed was on its way to conquering inflation and now that's all come undone. Earlier today, we got comments from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman that sounded like they were throwing in the towel on rate cuts, at least if the current energy regime continues. A year of +5% inflation would be badly damaging to the Fed's credibility as they haven't achieved their target at any point this decade. In terms of the Fed curve, there are now 7 bps of hikes priced in through December. That's a dramatic reversal from in February when pricing was for 60 bps of easing in that time frame.

As we head into the close, the major US stock indices are pressing to new lows for the day and the week, with downside momentum building. The S&P 500 is down nearly 1.5%, while the NASDAQ has extended losses to around -2.0%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure. This week marks an important technical shift, as both indices have now moved below their 200-day moving averages (Green line on the chart below) for the first time since May 2025. That break weakens the longer-term bullish bias and suggests that sellers are gaining firmer control. Focusing on the S&P 500, the index has now extended below the November low at 6521.92, taking out a key support level. With that break, the chart opens up, and there is limited support until the 6352 level, followed by a deeper target near 6212. Beyond that, the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low comes in at 6174.39, which represents a more significant correction zone. If the price were to extend toward that retracement level, it would imply a decline of roughly 11.6% from the all-time high reached in January, highlighting the potential magnitude of the current correction if downside momentum persists. Looking back to 2025, the move down from the February high to the April low took the price down -21.4%. For the trading week, the S&P index is down -1.86%. Likewise, the NASDAQ index has seen its technical tone shift more decisively to the downside. The index moved and closed back below its 200-day moving average on Wednesday, and since then, downside momentum has continued to build through both yesterday’s and today’s sessions. The decline has now pushed the price below a key swing area between 21,641 and 21,803, increasing the bearish bias. Currently trading near 21,640, down about -2.04% on the day, the break of that support zone suggests sellers are maintaining control. Looking ahead, the next downside target comes in between 20,905 and 21,033, which represents the next meaningful support region. A move below that zone would shift focus toward the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low, which comes in near 20,491.86. A decline to that level would represent roughly a -14.6% drop from the all-time high, underscoring the scope of the current correction if momentum continues lower. For context, the prior trend move from the February 2025 high to the April 2025 low saw a much steeper decline of about -26.5%, highlighting that while the current move is significant, it has not yet reached the magnitude of previous corrections. For the trading week, the NASDAQ index is down -2.04%. War in Iran is about to enter its 4th week. Although Trump and the US insist the plan is ahead of schedule, there are still changes to the plan including taking over Kharg Island which suggests boots on the ground and an end to the war weeks - if not months away. Moreover, strategic targets could be under attack by Iran and any hits, could require years of rebuilding and threatens the supply/demand for oil globally Crude oil is currently trading at $98.60, after a volatile week which saw the low price extend down to $91.45, and the high price reach $102.44. For the week the price is little changed. Recall last week, the high price reached all the way up to $119.48 before closing the week near $99.30

The USDCAD opened near the highs from earlier this month at 1.3752, but upside momentum stalled when the price failed to extend above yesterday’s high at 1.37476. That failure prompted buyers to turn to sellers, pushing the pair lower in early trading. On the downside, the 100-hour moving average (currently near 1.37086) once again became the key focus. This level has been well-defined support over the past few sessions. Yesterday, the price tested the moving average on two separate occasions and found willing buyers both times. Similarly, on Wednesday, multiple dips into the level were met with buying interest, reinforcing its importance as a short-term floor. In today’s trade, the first test of the 100-hour moving average held initially, but sellers were able to push the price below the level toward 1.3707, extending to a session low of 1.3700. However, downside momentum could not be sustained. As selling pressure faded, the price rotated back higher, and once it moved back above the 100-hour moving average, short sellers were forced to cover on the failed break. That shift helped drive the price back up toward a retest of yesterday’s high at 1.37476. Once again, that level attracted sellers. The inability to break higher kept the range intact, and the price has since rotated back to the downside, with the pair now trading back toward the 100-hour moving average, which remains the key pivot point for traders. The technical story remains largely unchanged from yesterday. The 100-hour moving average continues to define near-term bias. A break below that level should open the door for further downside momentum, with targets at 1.3700, followed by the Wednesday swing low at 1.3687, and then the rising 200-hour moving average near 1.36675. Conversely, if buyers once again defend the 100-hour moving average and push the price higher, traders will look toward resistance at 1.3724, followed by yesterday’s high at 1.3747, and the monthly high at 1.3752. In short, the market remains range-bound, with buyers defending support and sellers capping the highs. The next break—either below the 100 hour MA or the highs for the month, will be eyed for further momentum in the direction of the break.

The price of gold is under notable pressure today, falling sharply by about $90, or -1.93%, to trade near the $4565 level. That decline has pushed the price back below its 100-day moving average at $4582.44—a key technical level that has served as an important barometer for trend direction over the past several months. Looking back to yesterday’s price action, gold also dipped below that same 100-day moving average but managed to recover into the close. That late-session rebound helped the metal avoid its first daily close below the 100-day moving average since December 2024, reinforcing the idea that buyers were still willing to defend that level. However, today’s renewed break—and the inability (so far) to reclaim it—suggests that downside momentum may be starting to build, with sellers gaining more control in the near term. From a technical perspective, staying below the 100-day moving average (close risk now) keeps the bias tilted to the downside. If the price cannot quickly move back above that level, traders will begin to look toward lower support zones for the next targets. The next key area comes in near the $4400 region, which represents an important psychological level as well as a zone of prior price interaction. More specifically, the 50% midpoint of the move higher from the last major test of the 100-day moving average back in August 2025 comes in at $4433. That level adds a layer of technical significance within the broader $4400 area. Just below that, a swing low from late January sits near $4395, which also aligns with prior swing highs going back to October—creating a cluster of support that traders will be watching closely. In short, the break below the 100-day moving average shifts the near-term focus to the downside, with the $4433 to $4395 area representing a key support zone. Holding above that region could stabilize the market and invite buyers back in, but a sustained move below would likely open the door for a deeper correction as bearish momentum builds.

The USD 10 year yield is trading up to 4.407%. That is the highest level going back to August 1, 2025.. The yield is up over 10 basis points this week. Yields are up around 45 basis points since low of 3.926% on March 2. The move higher has the US dollar moving to the upside. USDJPY: The USDJPY has now moved above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 158.90 and 158.96 . The price is testing the underside of the broken trendline at session highs near 159.17. Move above that level and the price is back within the channel after the break and run lower yesterday. Close risk is now a move back below the 158.90 level for buyers looking for more upside. EURUSD: The EURUSD moves moved to new lows and in doing so is testing the 200 hour MA at 1.15277 and the 100 hour MA at 1.1517. The low just stalled in between those levels at 1.1526. Risk is now a move back above 1.15549 for sellers looking for more downside but getting below the 100 hour MA and staying below is needed to increase the bears control. Bias lower but overall sentiment is neutral above the MAs. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is continuing the retracement of the move higher yesterday and in doing so, is back below the 200 and 100 hour MAs at 1.33478 and 1.33367 respectively Those levels are now risk defining levels for sellers looking for more downside momentum. The price is testing a swing area between 1.3296 to 1.33058.

Today's stock market heatmap paints a vivid picture of a market grappling with varied performance across different sectors. Let's delve into the dynamics shaping the trading landscape today. 📉 Technology Sector Faces Headwinds The technology sector is currently under significant pressure, marked by notable declines. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.91%, while Oracle (ORCL) has taken a sharper fall, dropping by 3.36%. Meanwhile, Semiconductor giants like Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) are also experiencing decreases of 1.48% and 2.71%, respectively. This downturn is indicative of broader concerns within the tech space, possibly linked to factors such as fluctuating demand and regulatory scrutiny. ⚡ Energy Sector Gains Traction In contrast, the energy sector is displaying strength. ExxonMobil (XOM) has risen by 1.01%, and Chevron (CVX) is up 0.65%. This sector's positive movement may be fueled by increased oil prices and optimistic forecasts surrounding energy demand, offering investors a safe haven amid the tech downturn. 🔍 Financial Sector: A Mixed Bag Looking at the financial sector, we see a somewhat mixed performance. While JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is showing a minor dip of 0.33%, Wells Fargo (WFC) manages to edge up by 1.18%. This varied performance suggests differing investor sentiment regarding interest rate expectations and economic outlook. 📈 Health and Consumer Defensive Sectors Within healthcare, Eli Lilly (LLY) remains relatively stable with a slight decrease of 0.05%, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) drops by 0.64%. Meanwhile, consumer defensive giant Coca-Cola (KO) sees a marginal dip of 0.42%, indicating cautious consumer sentiment or strategic repositioning by investors. 📊 Overall Market Analysis The bearish signals from the tech sector are highlighting investor caution, with potential overvaluations and macroeconomic factors possibly contributing to the sector's retreat. The energy sector's robust performance suggests a positive outlook for industries aligned with raw materials and essential commodities. Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios, enhancing exposure to sectors like energy that exhibit positive momentum. Meanwhile, tech investments should be approached cautiously, accounting for volatility and potential shifts in market sentiment. Stay updated with InvestingLive.com for real-time insights and strategic advice as markets continue to evolve 🚀.

The CHF weakened initially (USDCHF moved higher) after the SNB signaled a willingness to intervene following its decision to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. The pair extended to a high of 0.7957, stalling just ahead of a downward-sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart. However, the upside momentum could not be sustained. Broad-based USD selling during the North American session triggered a rotation lower, pushing the price back below the 100-hour MA. A rebound during the Asian session lifted the pair back above that level (currently near 0.7885), but once again, buyers failed to maintain control. The pair has since rotated lower, dipping just below yesterday’s low before finding support near the rising 200-hour MA at 0.7869. With price now trading between the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, the short-term bias is neutral, and those MAs are the key directional barometers: Below the 200-hour MA (0.7869): Opens the door for a move toward a key swing area near 0.7837 (a level that held as support on Wednesday and has prior price memory). A break below that targets the 38.2% retracement at 0.7822. Above the 100-hour MA (0.7885): Shifts the bias back to the upside, with a retest of the 0.7900 natural resistance level. A break above that would increase bullish momentum and expose higher levels. In short, the market is in consolidation mode, with the battle between the 100- and 200-hour MAs setting up the next directional move.

If oil stays high for months on and at some point it leads into core inflation. A high and persistent oil shock would not have a transitory impact on inflation. Based on the jobs report was planning to dissent, but since then inflation has become more of a concern Zero job growth does not seem normal, but that is what the math may indicate will keep the unemployment rate stable Fed cannot look through a large and persistent will shock, at this point caution for the Fed is warranted. Wants to wait and see how this evolves before deciding on rate cuts for later this year. Fed is making progress on taming structural inflation, which may be close to 2% now but is held higher by tariffs. Do not think there is a need to consider rate hikes. Inflation expectations are not unanchored.Investors understand inflation will drop once tariffs rolloff. If the tariff effects don't roll off in the 2nd half of the year it will be tricky. A shock of the right sort could push companies to start cutting labor. It could be the price of oil moving higher. Consumer outlook could also be damaged with gas prices rising. No reason to make bank reserves scarce just to reduce the balance sheet. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who had previously leaned toward lower rates, has shifted his stance amid renewed inflation concerns tied to the recent spike in oil prices. Waller argues that rising energy costs pose a broader risk than tariff-driven price increases, as oil feeds into a wide range of goods and services across the economy. In contrast, he views tariffs as more likely to create one-time price adjustments—not sustained inflation. He also noted that tariff-related price pressures have been less pronounced than expected so far. However, he cautioned that if those prices fail to ease by mid-year, it could become a more persistent inflation issue. For now, inflation expectations remain anchored, with the baseline view still leaning toward moderation in price pressures—but Waller’s shift highlights growing sensitivity to energy-driven risks, and a more wait-and-see attitude. Typically, Miran issues a statement on his dissenting bias on the Friday after the rate decision. Awaiting that response. .

Prior was -0.4% Ex autos +0.8% vs +1.2% expected Prior ex autos +0.1% (revised to 0.0%) Advance February sales +0.9% Sales hit $70.7 billion in January Sales ex autos and gas +0.9% The advance reading tends to be the better signal in this report and the number for February is strong. As for January, vehicles rose 2.0% led by new car dealers. In terms of the core, general merchandise retailers (+3.0%) rose for a fourth month while food and beverage retailers fell 0.6%. Ecommerce sales rose 1.5%.

Prior was +2.7% (revised to +2.8%) PPI y/y +5.4% vs +5.4% prior Raw materials price index +0.6% m/m vs +7.7% prior Raw materials price index +8.6% y/y vs +8.0% prior Normally, the Bank of Canada would give a lower reading like this some attention but with energy prices spiking, that won't be the case this year and instead they will wait for March data and to see what will happen with the war. The IPPI rose 0.4% month over month, a sharp deceleration from the 2.8% gain in January. Exclude energy and petroleum products and the index actually declined 0.4%. That tells you how narrow this move really was. Energy did all the heavy lifting. Refined petroleum products surged 8.2% on the month, with diesel climbing 10.5% as Iran-US tensions escalated through the second half of February. That's a geopolitical risk premium getting priced in, and it's the kind of move that can unwind just as quickly as it materialized. The easing of inflationary signals elsewhere are difficult to dismiss (at least pre-war). Primary non-ferrous metals fell 3.7% — their first decline since April 2025 — with silver and platinum group metals both retreating roughly 11%. Meat and dairy slid 5.9%, the steepest decline since July 2020, as poultry prices collapsed nearly 17% following Canada's decision to lift its ban on Brazilian chicken imports. On the raw materials side, the RMPI gained 0.6% but ex-energy it was down 1.1%. Metal ores declined 2.7% as Chinese iron ore stockpiles continued to build. The canola story is worth watching — prices rose 6.3% after China announced a substantial reduction in tariffs on Canadian canola seeds effective March 1. A rare constructive development in the Canada-China trade relationship. Year-over-year, gold and precious metals remain the dominant theme, with that group nearly doubling. But the broader picture is one where energy volatility is masking genuine softness in manufacturing prices.

Strong growth will be supported by government's supply side policies Hearing AI will augment workers, not replace them I am still concerned about the jobs market I always like to highlight the word 'still' in central bank speak because it's almost always a tell that they're losing faith in a position. Bowman has been a dove and advocating for rate cuts but since she's been ruled out of the Fed chair running, she's been tip-toeing away from that position and back towards her usual hawkish leanings.

The USD is pushing higher to kick off the Friday session. Stocks are trading lower, yields remain stubbornly elevated with the 10-year hovering near 4.30%, and oil prices are choppy but modestly lower. In today’s video, I break down the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective—highlighting the bias, key risks, and the levels that matter most heading into the session. For EURUSD, the pair surged higher yesterday, breaking above the 100-hour MA, the 200-hour MA at 1.15386, and a key swing area between 1.1542 and 1.1549. That upside momentum extended toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February high, with price reaching 1.1615 before sellers stepped in aggressively, driving a sharp rotation lower into the close. That downside momentum carried into today’s session, with price moving back toward the 200-hour MA (now at 1.15286). The low reached 1.1535 before finding buyers and bouncing modestly. The broader range is now clearly defined: Resistance: 38.2% retracement at 1.1608 Support: 200-hour MA at 1.15286 In between, a near-term swing area between 1.1542 and 1.1555 will act as a key battleground. Holding above keeps buyers in play; a move below shifts control back to the sellers. For USDJPY, the key barometer today is the cluster of moving averages—the 200-hour MA at 158.90 and the 100-hour MA at 158.96. The price rebounded into that zone earlier today and, once again, found willing sellers leaning against the resistance. Yesterday’s move was telling. The pair broke below both of those MAs, along with a key channel trendline, accelerating the downside momentum to a low near 157.50. That shift tilted the near-term bias more bearish. For today, 158.55 is the short-term bias-defining level. Below 158.55, sellers maintain control, and the rejection near the MA cluster gains credibility. Above 158.55, the downside momentum stalls, and a retest of the 100- and 200-hour MAs near 158.90–158.96 becomes more likely. In short, the MA cluster above remains a ceiling for now—but only if sellers can keep price below 158.55. For GBPUSD, the pair surged higher yesterday, breaking above both the 100-day MA at 1.3397 and the 200-day MA at 1.3434, before stalling at the next key target—the 50% retracement of the move down from the February high at 1.3465. From there, the price rotated lower. The initial move back below the 200-day MA found support at the 100-day MA, but the rebound stalled once again near the 200-day MA, where sellers leaned. That selling pressure carried into the European session today, pushing the pair below the 100-day MA and down to a low of 1.3362. However, buyers have stepped back in, and the price is now rebounding toward the 100-day MA (currently near 1.3387). That level will be the key barometer for the day: Above 1.3387, buyers regain control and can target a move back toward the 200-day MA at 1.3434. Below 1.3362, sellers take back control, with the next downside target at the 200-hour MA near 1.3349. In short, the battle around the 100-day MA will set the tone for GBPUSD today.

Headlines: Dollar recoups some losses on the day, eyes stay on the Middle East ahead of the weekend US stocks with their backs against the wall in the final stretch of the week Trump reportedly mulls occupying Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz EU leaders make the rare choice of appointing ​Vujčić as next ECB vice president ECB hawk says will need to consider April rate hike if inflation outlook sours further ECB policymaker Villeroy: Potential rate hikes will be decided meeting by meeting Markets: Brent crude oil up 0.5% to $108.17, WTI crude oil up 0.3% to $94.93 CAD leads, JPY lags on the day European indices set to end the week lower, S&P 500 futures down 0.3% Gold up 0.3% to $4,662, Silver down 1% to $72.20 US 10-year yields up 1.7 bps to 4.30% Bitcoin up 0.3% to $70,701 The Middle East conflict drags on and we're set to head into the weekend expecting the same to continue next week. Headline risks remain paramount but there wasn't too much going on in the session. The only notable news was a report saying US president Trump might be considering a takeover of Iran's Kharg Island to try and force a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It is a risky maneuver if the plan to occupy the island is carried out. So, we'll have to wait and see. But if anything, it highlights the fact that this war will not really end - at least for markets - until Iran's stranglehold over shipping through the strait is broken. Oil prices continue to hold higher still but are not acting up too much during the day so far. Brent crude oil is up 0.5% to just above $108 with WTI crude oil up 0.3% to near $95 on the day. The US dollar also bounced back slightly following the losses yesterday. USD/JPY jumped up to a high of 158.90 but is now settling around 158.55, still up 0.5% on the day. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.1570 even as ECB policymakers speak out about potential rate hikes to come. ECB hawk Nagel even underscored the potential for a rate hike in April, with markets now pricing in ~58% odds of that happening. In the equities space, investors continue to grow more nervous. But for a late rebound in Wall Street yesterday, things could've gotten really dicey. And we are starting to see the worries creep in again with US futures down 0.3% and just off lows earlier. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are eyeing key technical breaks to the downside, so that will be one to watch before the end of the week. Elsewhere, bond yields continue to nudge higher amid ongoing fears about the inflation outlook. 10-year gilt yields are up to 4.93%, its highest since 2008, while 10-year Treasury yields are also nudging up again to 4.30% on the day. As for precious metals, the picture is a bit more mixed today with gold up 0.3% to $4,662 and silver down 1% to $72.20 currently. That follows a late rebound yesterday, which came after an intense selling round before that. It's setting up to be a hectic end to the week, so keep your eyes and ears peeled for more volatility and headline risks abound.