SELL EURCAD – 1.61598

The trade is based on a confluence of technical signals: an Asian session false break of the 1.6160 level followed by a London‑session market structure swing reversal, both occurring on a high‑volume bar that suggests strong participation. On the H4 timeframe the price is below the recent swing high, with the OBV indicator moving opposite to price, flagging a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. The setup received an A+ grade with an “excellent” entry rating and a 78 % bearish bias on the H4 chart. Fundamentally, recent US CPI data came in softer than expected, and the Fed minutes point to a cautious stance on further tightening, supporting a stronger USD. The CAD, being a commodity‑linked currency, faces pressure from modest oil prices around $63 and a broader risk‑off sentiment that typically benefits the USD over both EUR and CAD. This macro backdrop reinforces the technical bearish outlook, justifying a short position with a tight structure‑based stop and tiered profit targets.