SELL CHFJPY – 199.616

The trade is based on a classic false‑break pattern observed in the Asian session where CHFJPY briefly pierced a short‑term resistance before closing back below it, indicating weak buying. This was followed by a London‑session MSS (Market Structure Shift) reversal that confirmed the down‑trend, with price forming lower highs and lower lows on the H4 chart (37% bearish bias). Volume surged on the break, reinforcing the sell pressure, while OBV showed a conflict suggesting that buying is not supported by underlying momentum. With the US Dollar Index stabilising after the CPI release, there is no strong fundamental catalyst to lift the CHF, and risk sentiment remains neutral, allowing the technical bearish setup to dominate. The entry at 199.616 targets the next structural support levels at 199.504, 199.408 and 199.216, with a stop‑loss just above the recent swing high at 199.776, providing a clear risk‑reward profile.